Ember

Ember (emberfyi.com) is an AI-powered forecasting and market intelligence platform designed to find actionable edges in prediction markets by systematically comparing machine-generated probabilities against real-money crowd pricing.

At its core, Ember operates like a live forecasting engine + public experiment in predictive accuracy. Every day, it pulls data from multiple sources—prediction markets (like Polymarket), bookmaker odds, and AI research and news feeds—and synthesizes them into structured probability forecasts about real-world events (politics, tech, finance, etc.).

How it works

Ember runs a daily “intelligence cycle” where multiple independent AI models (including systems from xAI and Google) each assign their own probabilities to the same set of questions—without consulting each other. This creates intentional disagreement, not consensus.

Those forecasts are then compared to real-money market prices. When Ember’s probability differs significantly (e.g., 10+ percentage points) from the market, the system flags it as a high-conviction signal—a potential mispricing where either the AI or the crowd is wrong.

What makes it different

• Prediction market focus: Built specifically around identifying inefficiencies in markets like Polymarket

• AI vs. crowd framework: Treats forecasting as a competition between models and real-money participants

• Full transparency: Every prediction is timestamped, locked before resolution, and never edited or deleted

• Quantified performance: Accuracy is tracked using proper forecasting metrics like the Brier score, with a public scoreboard

• Long-term record: Runs as a 365-day experiment where every win and loss is recorded

What it’s for

Ember is built for traders, researchers, and analysts who want data-driven signals about future events, not opinions. Instead of just showing probabilities, it highlights where the biggest disagreements—and therefore potential opportunities—exist.